China reduces U.S. pork and soybean imports amid Trump’s tariff escalation

U.S. crop and meat exports face mounting pressure as China slashes purchases in response to rising tariffs.

Soybeans on display at a wholesale grain market in Shanghai, China, on March 4, 2025. Photo by Raul Ariano/Bloomberg

By Anna Fadiah and Hayu Andini

Foreign demand for American agricultural products is showing signs of strain as the latest export data reveals a sharp reduction in purchases from China. The decline in U.S. pork and soybean sales comes just days after President Trump ramped up tariffs on Chinese goods—measures that are now triggering retaliatory actions from Beijing and casting uncertainty over the future of America’s crop and meat exports.

China cancels pork orders and reduces soybean buying

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported a significant drop in China’s agricultural orders for the week ending April 17, raising alarm among farmers, exporters, and market analysts. Specifically, China canceled 12,000 tons of previously announced U.S. pork purchases, reducing total pork sales to just 5,800 tons for the week—a staggering 72% drop from the previous week and the lowest total for 2025 deliveries so far.

“If we see big cancellations again next week, I would expect to see more market reaction,” said Karl Setzer, head of Consus Ag Consulting. The abrupt cancellation has fueled speculation that a longer-term shift in Chinese purchasing strategy might be underway, possibly in direct response to escalating trade tensions.

Soybean sales also suffered. China purchased a mere 1,800 tons of U.S. soybeans during the same period, a drastic fall from the 72,800 tons it bought just a week earlier. The reduction underscores Beijing's intent to limit exposure to American agriculture as the trade war with Washington intensifies.

Commodity markets respond with caution

The impact on the commodity markets was mixed. Lean hog futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange edged lower by 0.2%, falling just under $1 per pound, reflecting market caution following the pork cancellations. However, soybean futures rose 1.2% to $10.63 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. Analysts believe the jump reflects a "wait-and-see" approach by traders, many of whom are hesitant to declare this a lasting trend based on a single week of data.

“Most of the guys I talk to are in the camp of ‘one week does not a trend make,’” said Jason Britt, president of Central States Commodities in Kansas City, Missouri. According to Britt, seasonal behavior could be influencing the figures. In spring, Chinese buyers typically ease off U.S. soybean purchases while farmers prepare to plant new crops. Exporters, in turn, tend to shift focus to the upcoming harvest.

Trump’s tariffs trigger global trade ripple effects

The backdrop to China’s reduced agricultural demand is President Trump’s recent decision to sharply raise tariffs on Chinese imports—from an initial 84% to a staggering 145%. Beijing swiftly retaliated with its own 125% tariff on American goods, including key agricultural products such as soybeans and pork. The tit-for-tat measures have added new volatility to a trade relationship that was already strained.

According to Scott Gerlt, chief economist at the American Soybean Association, these rising tariffs threaten to undermine a sector that relies heavily on foreign demand, especially from China. “The market fundamentals will discount U.S. soy if the tariffs continue,” Gerlt warned, noting that China represents 60% of the U.S. soybean export market. “Replacing Chinese demand is extremely difficult, and its absence may cause ripple effects across the entire supply chain.”

Tariff uncertainty clouds future projections

Despite the drop in purchases and mounting tensions, analysts remain cautious about making long-term predictions. While this week’s export data clearly shows the effects of China reducing U.S. pork and soybean imports, uncertainty lingers due to fluctuating policy signals from Washington.

President Trump hinted earlier this week that he may be open to loosening the tariffs, though China has insisted that the reductions must be unilateral and unconditional. Such mixed messages are complicating efforts for U.S. agribusinesses to make informed production, pricing, and shipping decisions.

“The volatility in the current trade environment makes planning extremely difficult,” Gerlt said. “Whether it’s farmers deciding what to plant or traders trying to hedge, everyone is operating in the dark.”

Broader economic impact on U.S. agriculture

The consequences of China reducing U.S. pork and soybean imports extend far beyond weekly trading numbers. As Chinese demand wanes, many in the agricultural sector are bracing for lower commodity prices and tighter margins. Some farmers are already exploring alternative export markets, though few countries can match the scale of China’s purchasing power.

A weaker U.S. dollar has provided a temporary buffer, making American agricultural products more affordable to other foreign buyers. However, industry experts warn that this may not be enough to offset the potential long-term decline in Chinese demand.

“This isn’t just a hiccup,” said Setzer. “We’re looking at a potentially fundamental shift in global trade flows, and the U.S. agriculture sector needs to prepare accordingly.”

What lies ahead for U.S. exporters

As of now, the full scope of China’s reduced appetite for U.S. farm goods remains uncertain. One week’s data may not indicate a long-term trend, but continued cancellations and diminished purchases will inevitably pressure commodity prices, disrupt supply chains, and heighten the political stakes in the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.

For now, producers and traders are keeping a close eye on the next set of export data. Another week of weak sales would add weight to fears that the U.S. may be losing its most valuable agricultural customer—an outcome with profound consequences for rural economies, food prices, and American global trade influence.