American Airlines withdraws full-year forecast amid weakening U.S. travel demand

American Airlines posts $473 million loss as domestic leisure travel falters, joining Delta and Southwest in suspending 2024 guidance.

A worker walks on the tarmac next to American Airlines planes at José Martí International Airport in Havana, on April 3, 2025. Photo by Yamil Lage/AFP

By Anna Fadiah and Hayu Andini

American Airlines has withdrawn its full-year forecast after reporting a larger-than-expected first-quarter loss, becoming the latest major U.S. carrier to signal concern over declining domestic travel demand. The announcement places American alongside Delta Air Lines and Southwest Airlines, which have also suspended their 2024 financial guidance in recent weeks.

The Texas-based airline disclosed on Thursday that it lost $473 million in the first three months of the year, a significant increase from the $312 million loss reported during the same period in 2023. Excluding special items, American posted an adjusted loss of 59 cents per share, which was better than the 70-cent loss anticipated by analysts surveyed by FactSet. Despite the loss, revenue remained relatively stable, slipping just 0.2% to $12.55 billion, in line with expectations.

American Airlines’ decision to pull its 2024 guidance signals growing industry concern about volatile travel patterns and economic headwinds. The airline now expects second-quarter adjusted earnings in the range of 50 cents to $1 per share. Analysts had previously forecast a stronger figure of 96 cents per share for the same period.

While overall revenue was essentially flat, American faced a decline in one of its most critical markets: domestic leisure travel. According to the airline, demand for travel within the U.S. was dampened by macroeconomic uncertainty and heightened safety concerns following a high-profile plane crash in January near Washington, D.C.

Domestic revenue per available seat mile—a key metric in the airline industry—fell 0.7% in the first quarter. In contrast, international markets showed more resilience, with total international revenue per available seat mile rising 2.9%. That growth was powered by transatlantic routes, which rose 11%, and Pacific routes, which saw a 4.9% gain. The company also noted increases in both premium cabin bookings and loyalty program revenue.

Despite the gloomy numbers and the withdrawal of annual guidance, American Airlines CEO Robert Isom struck a hopeful tone. In a statement, Isom pointed to the airline’s efforts in recent years to modernize its fleet, reduce costs, and improve its balance sheet.

“The actions American has taken over the past several years to refresh our fleet, manage costs and strengthen our balance sheet position us well for the uncertainty our industry is facing,” Isom said.

Speaking to CNBC on Thursday, Isom acknowledged that the company is navigating difficult terrain but remains in ongoing discussions with the Trump administration about restoring momentum in the domestic travel sector.

“We’re actively working with federal partners to explore strategies for reigniting consumer confidence and boosting travel activity,” he said, without offering specifics about potential policy measures or stimulus.

American’s move to withdraw its forecast follows a pattern among the largest U.S. airlines. Delta Air Lines and Southwest Airlines previously suspended their financial outlooks for the year, citing similar reasons including volatile fuel costs, unpredictable booking trends, and geopolitical uncertainties.

The airline sector, which rebounded strongly in 2022 and 2023 after the pandemic, now faces a new phase of instability marked by fluctuating consumer behavior and persistent inflation. While international demand continues to rise, especially for long-haul flights, the more lucrative and higher-volume domestic market is showing signs of fatigue.

Analysts have noted that leisure travel in the U.S., a key revenue stream for American Airlines, may be softening due to household budget constraints, higher airfares, and the increasing cost of living.

The loss of forward guidance has left investors and analysts with limited visibility into American’s future performance, a concern as the summer travel season approaches. Uncertainty around fuel prices, labor costs, and potential geopolitical disruptions adds to the complexity.

Still, some analysts see potential upside in American’s diversified revenue streams. The airline’s international routes, loyalty programs, and premium offerings have been performing well, offering a cushion against domestic volatility. American’s global reach and operational scale also provide flexibility that smaller carriers may lack.

Despite the current turbulence, American Airlines appears focused on long-term resilience. Over the past few years, the company has taken significant steps to position itself more competitively, including retiring older aircraft, enhancing its digital services, and expanding its international partnerships.

These moves may help the airline navigate through what Isom describes as a “transitional period” for the industry. While the short-term outlook remains hazy, American’s leadership seems committed to riding out the storm.

American Airlines’ decision to withdraw its full-year forecast underscores the fragility of the U.S. domestic travel market and reflects a broader trend of caution within the airline industry. With a $473 million loss in Q1 and muted expectations for Q2, the airline faces pressure to stabilize performance in a challenging environment. Nonetheless, growth in international travel and loyalty revenue provides a glimmer of hope, as the airline leans on its strategic initiatives to endure economic and operational headwinds.

As American Airlines withdraws full-year forecast and grapples with declining domestic demand, industry watchers will be closely monitoring its next moves—and whether consumer travel habits rebound in time for the critical summer season.