Climate change driving more extreme temperature flips, study finds

Sudden shifts between heat and cold are rising worldwide due to global warming, putting ecosystems and public health at risk.

Illustration by Febrina Tiara

By Anna Fadiah and Hayu Andini

Extreme temperature flips—rapid shifts from heatwaves to cold spells and vice versa—are becoming more frequent and intense around the world as a result of climate change, according to a new study published in Nature Communications. The phenomenon of extreme temperature flips, previously under-researched compared to traditional heatwaves or cold snaps, is now emerging as a critical marker of climate disruption.

The research, which analyzed temperature data from 1961 to 2023, found that over 60 percent of the Earth’s surface has experienced a noticeable uptick in these abrupt thermal shifts. The study attributes this increase in part to changes in the waviness of the jet stream and the intensifying effects of evaporation and soil moisture loss driven by global warming.

“These kinds of flips can have a huge impact in a very short time,” said Wei Zhang, a professor at Utah State University and one of the study’s lead authors. “They give little room for people, crops, or ecosystems to adapt.”

The science behind extreme temperature flips

The study defines an extreme temperature flip as a change of at least one standard deviation above or below the mean within a five-day window. These flips are not just statistical anomalies—they are real events with major consequences.

One mechanism identified in the paper is the increasing waviness in the jet stream, which is caused by a reduced temperature difference between the Arctic and mid-latitudes. This waviness results in slower-moving weather systems, allowing extreme conditions to linger and flip more drastically.

Additionally, climate warming leads to drier soils in many regions. This soil moisture deficit intensifies local heatwaves, while also contributing to more erratic cooling events due to unstable heat fluxes between land and atmosphere.

Richard Allan, a climate scientist at the University of Reading, noted that “the study is quite novel,” though interpreting the exact physics remains a challenge. “What we are seeing is that climate change isn’t just making things hotter—it’s making weather patterns more volatile and harder to predict.”

Global hotspots and real-world impacts

The research team identified several regions—western Europe, South and Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa—as being most affected by extreme temperature flips. These regions are also often densely populated and economically vulnerable, compounding the risks to human health, food security, and infrastructure.

One case study cited in the report is the March 2012 flip in North America, where temperatures plummeted from 10°C above normal to 5°C below normal in under a week. This sudden reversal triggered what researchers called a “false spring,” prompting premature budding in trees and crops that were later destroyed by frost.

In September 2020, the Rocky Mountains experienced a similarly sharp swing, plunging over 20°C in a single day from a heatwave into heavy snowfall. The sudden change led to power outages, vehicle accidents, and damaged buildings due to the weight of unexpected snow.

Europe also saw widespread damage in April 2021, when an early warmth period gave way to sudden frost, devastating vineyards and fruit orchards across France, Germany, and Italy.

Energy systems and agricultural threats

One of the broader societal concerns raised by the study is the strain on energy infrastructure. As heating and cooling demand swing erratically, power grids—especially in developing countries—may struggle to meet rapid changes in consumption.

“Managing energy becomes far more difficult in a world of unpredictable weather,” said Allan. “Wilder swings between hot and cold, and wet and dry, increase the risk of blackouts and water shortages.”

In agriculture, sudden climate shifts can undermine planting schedules, disrupt growing seasons, and destroy harvests in a matter of days. These effects are already being felt in key food-producing regions.

What the future holds under current emissions

If greenhouse gas emissions continue on their current trajectory, the researchers warn that extreme temperature flips will become more common, more intense, and occur over shorter timeframes. The proportion of the global population exposed to such extremes could more than double by the end of the century.

The study’s projections show that without substantial emissions cuts, many low-income nations—those least equipped to handle environmental shocks—will face the harshest consequences. This includes areas already struggling with drought, food insecurity, and underdeveloped infrastructure.

“These shifts are not isolated events,” said Zhang. “They are part of a larger pattern of climate destabilization that we are just beginning to understand.”

Broader climate instability and “climate whiplash”

This research adds to a growing body of evidence indicating that temperature variability is not the only concern. A recent study by scientists from Bristol and Cardiff universities found that 15 percent of the world’s largest cities are also experiencing increased frequency of flips between wet and dry conditions—a phenomenon dubbed “climate whiplash.”

That study, supported by the charity WaterAid, highlighted the risks posed by alternating periods of drought and flooding, which can contaminate water supplies, destroy infrastructure, and foster the spread of disease.

Together, the findings from both studies underscore how climate change is creating a world of more erratic, difficult-to-manage conditions—not just more heat.

Expert opinions and calls to action

Mat Collins, joint Met Office chair in climate change at Exeter University, praised the credibility of the new study while cautioning that more models are needed to fully verify its findings.

“The mechanisms they propose make sense,” said Collins. “It appears we are facing not just a warming world, but one with more frequent and severe weather flips.”

While meteorological tools have improved dramatically in recent years, making short-term forecasts more reliable, scientists stress that improved forecasting alone won’t prevent harm from rapid temperature changes.

“The only way to limit the growing severity of weather extremes is to rapidly cut greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors of society,” said Allan.

A warning and an opportunity

The rise of extreme temperature flips represents both a warning sign and an opportunity. On one hand, the trend is a stark reminder of the cascading effects of climate change. On the other, it signals the need for global systems—from energy and food production to urban planning and public health—to become more adaptive, more flexible, and more resilient.

What is clear from the latest research is that extreme weather is no longer a seasonal inconvenience. It is a defining feature of the modern climate, and understanding its patterns is crucial for preparing for what lies ahead.

As Professor Zhang and his colleagues concluded, the world must brace for more rapid shifts and prepare accordingly—because nature will not wait.