Dalai Lama to decide on successor as 90th birthday approaches

Dalai Lama’s upcoming 90th birthday may mark a defining moment for Tibetan Buddhism as exiled leader weighs future of his spiritual institution.

Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama attends a public lecture on the 'Meaning of Life and Secular Ethics' in New Delhi on December 9, 2016. Photo by Money Sharma/AFP

By Anna Fadiah and Hayu Andini

As the Dalai Lama prepares to celebrate his 90th birthday this July, the revered Tibetan spiritual leader is poised to make a critical decision about the future of his role — whether there will be a 15th Dalai Lama. For many exiled Tibetans, this choice represents far more than religious continuity. It symbolizes their enduring hope for cultural survival and a peaceful resolution to their homeland’s political struggles.

The Dalai Lama successor question has long loomed over the Tibetan exile community. His Holiness, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate and global advocate for compassion and nonviolence, has repeatedly spoken of planning for a time when he will no longer be present. Now, that transition could become a reality. Thupten Jinpa, his principal English-language translator for nearly 40 years, says the time is ripe for a public declaration.

"I know for a fact that he has received petitions from across the Tibetan Buddhism communities, including some from inside Tibet," Jinpa said recently in India, where the Dalai Lama has lived in exile since 1959 after fleeing a Chinese crackdown in Lhasa. "My hope is that before his birthday, July 6, he will issue a final statement."

Jinpa, a Buddhist scholar and former monk who co-authored the Dalai Lama’s latest book Voice for the Voiceless, believes the spiritual role must continue despite political complications. He describes the Dalai Lama institution as a kind of Buddhist papacy that holds moral and symbolic power, not just in Tibet but across regions such as Mongolia, Bhutan, Nepal, and parts of Russia.

“If my guess is right, and he says that the continuity of the institution will remain, that means then there will be a new Dalai Lama,” Jinpa added.

Reincarnation and resistance

The Dalai Lama’s own journey began in 1936 when, at the age of two, he was recognized as the reincarnation of the 13th Dalai Lama. Identifying a successor has traditionally involved a mix of spiritual visions, signs, and tests administered by senior Tibetan monks. But modern geopolitics have complicated the process.

China, which considers Tibet an integral part of its territory, insists it has the authority to approve the next Dalai Lama. In 1995, Beijing selected its own child as the Panchen Lama — the second-highest figure in Tibetan Buddhism — and detained the six-year-old boy recognized by the Dalai Lama. That child remains missing, described by human rights organizations as the world’s youngest political prisoner.

Jinpa expects similar tactics when the time comes. “The Chinese will choose another 'Dalai Lama', that's for sure,” he said. “It will be ridiculous, but they will do it.”

However, Jinpa believes such a move would lack legitimacy among Tibetans worldwide. “They can suppress, they can ban, they can force,” he said. “But you can never change people's heart. What’s in the heart belongs to the individual.”

Planning for impermanence

Buddhism teaches followers to meditate on impermanence, and the Dalai Lama has often reminded his followers that he is not immortal. He has publicly said that he wishes to live to 113, but has also emphasized the need for succession planning. In 2011, he relinquished his political duties to an elected Tibetan government-in-exile, paving the way for a secular democratic system that now represents more than 130,000 Tibetans scattered across the globe.

“He has already prepared the formal political structure for carrying on the struggles of the Tibetan cause beyond his lifetime,” said Jinpa. “But one of the things that he can't just transfer to an elected body is the moral authority, and his status as the symbol of a nation.”

This distinction, Jinpa says, is what makes the continuity of the Dalai Lama institution so crucial. For Tibetans, the Dalai Lama is not merely a religious figure — he is a living emblem of their culture, faith, and hope for autonomy.

Jinpa explains that discussions around succession have matured, with consultations underway inside and outside Tibet. The Dalai Lama has also declared that any reincarnation must occur outside Chinese-controlled territory to preserve its legitimacy. The Gaden Phodrang Trust — the Dalai Lama’s office in McLeod Ganj, India — would oversee the recognition process.

A historic decision ahead

With his birthday approaching, anticipation is growing over whether the Dalai Lama will issue a definitive statement on his reincarnation. Jinpa, who was born in Tibet but fled as a baby during the same year as the Dalai Lama’s escape, says many followers are emotionally preparing for the day when His Holiness is no longer with them.

“The idea of a world without him is almost unthinkable,” Jinpa admitted. “But that will happen, and His Holiness has himself been very explicit in making sure that people are thinking about it.”

He also noted that the Dalai Lama’s legacy transcends his physical presence. “He represents a symbol of peace, resilience, and cultural preservation for Tibetans,” he said. “That’s why having a next Dalai Lama is not just desirable — it’s essential.”

As the spiritual leader approaches his 90th year, his influence remains undiminished. Whether in religious teachings or global humanitarian efforts, the Dalai Lama’s presence continues to shape hearts and minds far beyond the Himalayan mountains.

What happens next may define Tibetan Buddhism for generations. And if, as expected, the Dalai Lama announces that his institution will live on, then the search for the 15th Dalai Lama — born in a free land, beyond the reach of authoritarian control — will begin.