Prabowo Subianto’s growing military influence sparks fears of democratic backslide in Indonesia

Indonesia’s expanded military role, press intimidation, and economic strain raise concerns about return to authoritarianism under President Prabowo.

In this handout photo released by Indonesia's presidential palace, President Prabowo Subianto (right) shakes hands following the flag-lowering ceremony at the military academy during a cabinet retreat in Magelang, Central Java, on October 25, 2024. Photo by Presidential Palace/AFP

By Anna Fadiah and Hayu Andini

Six months into his presidency, Prabowo Subianto is facing mounting criticism over what activists, analysts, and civil society groups describe as a slow but worrying erosion of Indonesia’s democratic foundations. His administration’s expansion of military authority in civil governance, combined with growing pressure on journalists and economic turbulence, has sparked fears of a return to the authoritarian practices once seen under Suharto’s New Order regime.

At the heart of the alarm is the recently passed legislation that allows active-duty military personnel to occupy roles in 14 civilian state institutions—an increase from the previous limit of 10. Among the new bodies now open to military presence is the attorney general’s office, raising red flags for human rights organizations who argue the move weakens institutional checks and balances.

Prabowo Subianto military influence has come to define the mood of Indonesia’s civil society, as critics warn that the country’s hard-won democratic progress is at risk of reversal.

From general to president: Shadows of the past

Prabowo Subianto’s military background is extensive and controversial. He was once an elite commander under Suharto, the dictator who ruled Indonesia for more than three decades. Prabowo has long been accused of human rights violations, including the alleged abduction of student activists in the final days of Suharto’s regime. Though he has never been formally charged, the accusations continue to haunt his political career.

Despite this legacy, Prabowo successfully reinvented himself politically, aligning with outgoing president Joko Widodo to win public trust and ultimately, the presidency. However, since taking office in October, his actions have reignited concerns about his authoritarian tendencies.

“This administration has opened the door for military dominance in government,” said Hussein Ahmad, deputy director of the Indonesian rights group Imparsial. “The collective trauma of the New Order dictatorship has not been addressed—and now it risks being repeated.”

Military’s widening reach

The expansion of the military’s formal role in governance was one of Prabowo’s first legislative initiatives. Introduced to parliament in February with government backing, the law drew criticism even from within the political establishment. Former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, himself a retired general, expressed dismay at the shift in norms.

“It was once taboo for military personnel to enter politics while in service,” Yudhoyono said. “The principle was simple: if you want to engage in politics, resign first.”

Presidential spokesperson Hasan Nasbi dismissed fears of authoritarian regression. “This law actually restricts the military’s involvement to 14 sectors where their skills are applicable,” he told AFP. “Claims of creeping militarism are inaccurate.”

Nonetheless, the symbolism has been hard to ignore. In November, shortly after forming his cabinet, Prabowo held a retreat where ministers wore military fatigues—an unusual move for a civilian government. Adding to the unease, his defense minister—another former general accused of past abuses—announced plans to create 100 new battalions tasked with implementing government policy.

Tighter grip on the media

Concerns over Prabowo Subianto military influence are not limited to governance. Press freedom, a cornerstone of Indonesia’s post-Suharto democracy, is also under pressure. A new police regulation introduced last month requires foreign journalists to obtain special permission before reporting from “certain locations,” a vague phrasing that critics say can be used to obstruct investigative journalism.

Though police later claimed the permit was not mandatory, Human Rights Watch researcher Andreas Harsono said the regulation’s chilling effect is unmistakable.

“Journalism and democracy are deeply connected,” Harsono said. “When the state limits journalistic freedom, it signals a retreat from democratic norms.”

The environment for local reporters has grown increasingly hostile. Last month, Tempo, a prominent magazine known for government criticism, received a pig’s head and six decapitated rats at its offices—widely interpreted as an intimidation tactic. The magazine’s website has also suffered cyberattacks after publishing an investigation into links between gambling syndicates and influential Indonesian figures.

“This is not just about intimidation,” said Tempo journalist Francisca Christy Rosana, who was recently doxxed. “It’s about silencing the press.”

Economic malaise adds to tensions

Amid growing political unease, Indonesia’s economy is also showing signs of strain. The rupiah has tumbled against the U.S. dollar, while investor confidence has wavered due to market instability and global trade tensions. Prabowo has slashed government spending in response—drawing criticism for failing to shield vulnerable communities.

The economic uncertainty compounds fears about the administration’s priorities. Civil society groups say that instead of addressing economic challenges through structural reform and inclusive policies, Prabowo’s focus has leaned heavily on military solutions and political centralization.

“There’s a sense that the economy is becoming a secondary concern,” said economist Mira Putri. “This government is more interested in expanding power than solving the bread-and-butter issues people face.”

Public protests and resistance

Activists hold banners during a protest against the revision of military law in Surabaya, Indonesia, on March 24, 2025. Photo by Robertus Pudyanto/Getty Images

The public has not remained silent. In March, thousands took to the streets in cities across the country, decrying the military’s growing footprint in government. Protesters carried banners reading “Back to the Barracks” and “Democracy, Not Dictatorship.”

Though Prabowo acknowledged the demonstrators’ rights to protest, he cautioned against civil unrest. “If these actions create chaos, it goes against the national interest,” he warned in a televised interview.

Rights watchdog KontraS said the protests represent only “the tip of the iceberg.” Andrie Yunus, the group’s spokesperson, warned that the military’s expanded role marks “an open path toward a new regime—one that is not democratic.”

“We view the military law as the beginning of opening Pandora’s box,” Yunus added. “And once opened, the consequences may be irreversible.”

What’s at stake for Indonesia’s democracy

Prabowo Subianto military influence, the stakes are about more than just one man’s leadership. Indonesia, the world’s third-largest democracy and the most populous Muslim-majority nation, has been hailed as a model for democratic transition in Southeast Asia.

Activists argue that Prabowo’s actions represent a broader test for whether that democratic legacy will endure—or be dismantled under the guise of national stability and military discipline.

“This is a crucial moment,” said political analyst Devi Anggraini. “If civil society, the press, and democratic institutions don’t stand firm now, the window to act may close for good.”

The coming months will be a litmus test for Prabowo’s presidency—and for Indonesia’s democracy itself.