Trump renews Japan tariff threats over car safety test that doesn’t exist

Trump’s tariff warning targets a fictional Japanese car safety test as trade tensions over vehicle exports and standards escalate.

New vehicles parked at Kawasaki Port, south of Tokyo, on April 11, 2025. Photo by Philip Fong/AFP

By Anna Fadiah and Hayu Andini

As Donald Trump reignites his campaign to reshape U.S. trade policy, Japanese officials are once again scrambling to interpret the former president’s tariff threats — this time over a car safety test that does not actually exist. At the center of the dispute is Trump’s repeated claim that Japan uses a “bowling-ball” test to disqualify imported cars, a claim Japanese regulators insist is pure fiction.

Speaking on his Truth Social platform this past Sunday, Trump cited the so-called bowling ball drop test as an example of Japan’s alleged “protective technical standards,” a narrative he first introduced in 2018. “They take a bowling ball from 20 feet up in the air and they drop it on the hood of the car. And if the hood dents, then the car doesn’t qualify,” Trump said. “It’s horrible, the way we’re treated.”

However, Japanese safety regulators have made clear that no such test is part of their vehicle assessment protocols.

No bowling balls in sight

While Japan does conduct rigorous safety testing on vehicles, none involve bowling balls or vertical drops. A real test, conducted in Japan and several other countries under United Nations guidelines, involves simulating a pedestrian impact by striking a car’s hood with a rounded object at a speed of 35 kilometers per hour. Interestingly, a dented hood in this context is not a disqualifying result — it can be an indicator of effective shock absorption that could reduce injury in the event of a collision.

This approach is part of a global safety regime aligned closely with Europe’s standards. In contrast, the United States relies on its own independent testing system, one that often diverges from UN rules.

Trade tensions flare again

Trump’s renewed rhetoric comes as Japanese trade officials, led by Ryosei Akazawa, prepare to resume negotiations in Washington. With Japan’s export-dependent economy under pressure, Tokyo is eager to avoid the 24 percent “reciprocal tariffs” that Trump has threatened to impose — levies that would come in addition to existing tariffs on automobiles and industrial metals.

“94 percent of the cars in Japan are made in Japan,” Trump claimed while introducing the tariff proposal earlier this month. “Toyota sells one million foreign made automobiles into the United States and General Motors sells almost none.”

Such statements echo long-standing American frustrations over the trade imbalance in automobile exports. Former President Barack Obama voiced similar concerns during a 2015 visit to Tokyo, saying, “There are many Japanese cars in America. I want to see more American cars in Japan as well.”

U.S. automakers struggle in Japan

Despite decades of attempts, U.S. automakers have gained only a modest foothold in the Japanese market. In the 2024 fiscal year, American brands such as Jeep and Tesla sold just 17,207 vehicles in Japan — a negligible portion of the 4.57 million passenger cars sold overall, according to Japanese government data.

Auto industry insiders argue that the causes of this imbalance go far beyond safety standards or tariffs.

“There are little quirks but they are remnants of a bureaucracy of a system that has been changing slowly. Are they non tariff barriers? Yes, they are as it takes more time and money to comply,” said Pontus Häggström, a former head of Fiat Chrysler in Japan who now leads the Alpine brand under Renault. “Is this the reason why US cars are not selling in Japan? The answer is completely not.”

Others point to design and market fit. A Tokyo-based advertising executive who marketed American car brands in the 1990s and early 2000s said U.S. vehicles have consistently struggled due to being “too big, consume too much gas, and lack the little design details that the customer here looks for.”

Political risks for Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has been wary of Trump’s threats, describing the tariffs as precipitating a “national crisis.” With his popularity already under strain, Ishiba has signaled that Japan will resist any compromise that undermines domestic safety or food standards.

“Be it cars or agricultural products, we will not do anything that will affect safety,” he told lawmakers during a parliamentary session this week, signaling a firm stance against any rollback of national safety protocols — fictional or not.

Yet, Japan may find space to negotiate on other fronts. Some non-tariff barriers, such as Japan’s fast-charging standards for electric vehicles or its support schemes favoring domestic producers like Toyota, remain points of contention in trade talks.

Room to maneuver in EV regulations

Ludwig Kanzler, CEO of Hanegi Solutions — a consultancy that has worked with South Korea’s Hyundai on entering the Japanese market — believes Japan could offer trade concessions on electric vehicles.

“If Japan wants to offer something, then they can do it on the EV front as there are some barriers there,” Kanzler said.

Japan’s charging standards differ from those used in the U.S. and Europe, and harmonizing these rules could ease entry for American EV manufacturers. Tokyo may also consider reviewing subsidies that critics say unfairly benefit local automakers, another area of friction in the broader U.S.-Japan auto trade relationship.

Trump’s narrative vs. economic facts

Trump’s focus on the bowling ball test, though easily debunked, fits a broader pattern of framing trade partners as using arcane or unfair technical barriers. His emphasis on visible and emotionally resonant examples — even if not grounded in fact — has proven politically effective in energizing his base and shaping public narratives around trade.

But for Japan, the challenge lies in navigating negotiations with a leader who prizes symbolism over policy detail, all while defending legitimate regulatory regimes and protecting a fragile economy.

As Trump continues to push a combative trade agenda that could define his 2025 campaign, Tokyo is bracing for more rhetorical curveballs — and preparing to defend itself against tariffs that may be based on little more than myth.