Black smoke signals no consensus in historic papal vote

Cardinals divided over Pope Francis’s legacy struggle to reach consensus in historic conclave.

Black smoke rises from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel, signaling that a new pope has not yet been elected and voting will resume the following day, in Vatican City on May 7, 2025. Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

By Anna Fadiah and Hayu Andini

Black smoke poured out of the chimney above the Sistine Chapel on Wednesday night, signaling to the world that the cardinals had failed to elect a new pope on the first day of the Vatican conclave. The symbolic plume confirmed that the electors—tasked with choosing a successor to Pope Francis—had not reached the two-thirds majority required for a papal election.

The latest papal conclave, one of the most consequential in modern Church history, comes in the wake of the death of Pope Francis and the deep ideological fractures that marked his papacy. A record 133 cardinals, representing more than 70 countries, gathered inside the Apostolic Palace to begin their deliberations. As Catholicism’s 1.4 billion followers await news of a new pontiff, the conclave reflects a critical moment for the future direction of the Church.

“This is more than just electing a new pope—it’s a referendum on Francis’s papacy,” said Miles Pattenden, a historian at Oxford University and author of Electing the Pope in Early Modern Italy. “The cardinals are grappling with whether the past twelve years of reforms should be cemented or rolled back.”

Reform versus tradition

Pope Francis, who was known for his inclusive stance and efforts to modernize the Church, left behind a complex legacy. He welcomed LGBTQ+ Catholics, emphasized the role of women, advocated for climate action and refugee rights, and opened consultations to lay members on shaping the Church’s future. These initiatives won him global admiration but also fierce resistance from conservative factions within the Church, particularly among cardinals from Africa and the United States.

Those traditionalists viewed many of Francis’s actions as departures from Church doctrine. His openness to discussions around divorce, homosexuality, and clerical power-sharing provoked internal dissent. Now, with his death, rival factions are pushing to influence the direction the next pope will take—whether to extend Francis’s reforms or reassert orthodox Catholicism.

“The Church is at a crossroads,” said Italian Cardinal Camillo Ruini, a staunch conservative voice at 94 years old. “We need to give the Church back to Catholics.”

Challenges for the next pope

Despite the day’s inconclusive vote, the conclave will continue with up to four voting rounds each day. In recent centuries, papal elections have typically concluded within five days. However, the diversity and sheer size of this conclave make it uniquely unpredictable.

“There have never been so many electors, and they’ve never come from such a wide geographic and ideological spread,” said historian Maria Antonietta Visceglia, an expert on papal conclaves. Many cardinals, she noted, are newly appointed and do not know each other well—making consensus more difficult to achieve.

The next pope will inherit not only Francis’s reform agenda but also mounting practical challenges. Financial scandals continue to dog the Vatican, and sexual abuse crises remain unresolved. In addition, the Church faces geopolitical tensions and an increasingly secular global environment.

John Allen Jr., editor of the Catholic publication Crux, outlined what the next leader must possess: “He needs to be a charismatic missionary to lead the faithful, a diplomat to navigate geopolitical instability, and a strong administrator who can fix internal dysfunction.”

The papabile frontrunners

Several names have surfaced as potential frontrunners, or papabili, though each comes with significant obstacles. Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s secretary of state, was initially seen as a natural successor due to his diplomatic expertise. However, his association with financial mismanagement and a controversial deal with Beijing on bishop appointments has damaged his prospects. His absence from public appearances due to rumored health issues further fueled uncertainty.

Cardinal Péter Erdő of Hungary, a conservative and respected canon law scholar, has also emerged as a candidate. However, speculation over political deals—denied by Hungary’s Vatican ambassador Eduard Habsburg—has raised eyebrows.

From the global south, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines has long been considered a bridge between tradition and reform. Frequently described as “an Asian Francis,” Tagle's emotional intelligence and pastoral approach won him many supporters. Yet, viral videos of him singing John Lennon’s “Imagine” have reignited theological debates and doubts about his doctrinal firmness.

Meanwhile, U.S. Cardinal Raymond Burke, an outspoken critic of Francis, posted a rare video praying for a “worthy man” to lead the Church “at a time of trial and great danger.”

Political and popular intrigue

Even beyond the marble halls of the Vatican, papal politics have gripped the globe. In Rome, clerics and Catholic activists have engaged in backroom negotiations. Even those over the age of 80—barred from voting—have participated in fiery closed-door debates. Speculation has spilled into the streets and onto digital platforms, with Italians enthusiastically playing “Fantapapa,” an online fantasy game that predicts the next pope.

World leaders have also chimed in. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, in a characteristic flourish, joked about wanting to be pope before throwing his support behind New York Archbishop Timothy Dolan. French President Emmanuel Macron was accused by Italian media of lobbying for Marseille Archbishop Jean-Marc Aveline.

Searching for consensus

Most Vatican analysts believe that neither the hardline conservatives nor the liberal reformers will secure enough votes for their preferred candidate. Instead, attention is turning toward centrist figures capable of bridging the gap between the two camps.

“I expect a moderate, compromise pope,” said Pattenden. “Someone who can slow the pace of reform to avoid alienating conservatives, but who won’t roll back progress entirely.”

Massimo Faggioli, a theology professor at Villanova University, agreed. “Francis’s off-the-cuff style often rattled the Church hierarchy. Now, the cardinals are looking for someone who brings stability—a period of calm.”

A church in transition

Until the white smoke rises above St. Peter’s Basilica, the faithful can only wait and pray. The cardinals, locked in the Sistine Chapel and swearing secrecy, bear the weight of history on their shoulders. Their decision will not only shape the Vatican’s future but will also determine whether the Catholic Church continues its trajectory of reform—or takes a different path altogether.

With voting to resume Thursday, global attention remains fixed on Rome. The next rounds will reveal whether consensus can be achieved—or if black smoke will continue to billow over the Vatican skyline.

As the world watches, the Catholic Church faces one of its most pivotal moments in recent memory—one where the decisions made behind closed doors will resonate across continents, cultures, and generations.