Midterm election in the Philippines becomes referendum on Marcos-Duterte feud

Sara Duterte’s political survival hinges on Senate race as millions of Filipinos vote in high-stakes midterm polls.

People wait in line to vote as election officials work at a polling station during the mid-term elections in Manila on May 12, 2025. Photo by Jam Sta Rosa/AFP

By Clarisa Sendy and Anna Fadiah

Millions of citizens across the Philippines took to the polls on Monday in a politically charged midterm election in the Philippines that has been widely viewed as a national referendum on the ongoing power struggle between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and impeached Vice President Sara Duterte. The stakes are high, with more than 18,000 positions up for grabs, ranging from seats in the House of Representatives to local council posts. However, it is the Senate race that has captured the national spotlight, carrying significant implications for the future of the country’s leadership.

High turnout as polls open

Even before voting officially began at 7:00 a.m. local time, long lines had formed outside polling stations in Manila, according to reports from AFP journalists. With 18,000 seats being contested across the country, enthusiasm and anxiety were palpable. A special early voting provision also allowed elderly voters and persons with disabilities to cast their ballots starting at 5:00 a.m., further encouraging civic participation.

Despite the broad scope of positions being filled, it is the outcome of the Senate race that could reshape the Philippines’ political landscape ahead of the 2028 presidential election. The midterm election in the Philippines has effectively turned into a vote on whether Vice President Sara Duterte will retain political relevance—or be permanently sidelined.

The Duterte-Marcos divide

Sara Duterte’s impeachment in February ignited an already simmering feud with President Marcos. The House of Representatives, dominated by allies of the president, charged her with “high crimes,” including corruption and an alleged plot to assassinate Marcos. The move shocked many and triggered an intense public debate that has spilled into Monday’s elections.

Complicating matters, Duterte’s father—former President Rodrigo Duterte—was arrested shortly afterward and flown to the International Criminal Court in The Hague. He faces charges of crimes against humanity stemming from his brutal war on drugs during his presidency. Still, despite being in detention, the elder Duterte remains on the ballot in his hometown of Davao City, where he is running once more for mayor. Polling in the area suggests he will win comfortably, underlining his enduring popularity in the south.

Senate’s role in impeachment trial

The most critical battle now lies in the Senate. Monday’s vote will determine 12 new senators who, alongside the 12 sitting members, will act as the jury in Duterte’s impeachment trial later this year. To survive politically, Duterte needs at least nine senators to vote against conviction. However, the odds may be stacked against her.

According to pre-election surveys, seven of the frontrunners are directly endorsed by President Marcos. Only four candidates are aligned with Duterte. In a surprising move, two high-profile candidates—President Marcos’s sister Imee Marcos and media personality Camille Villar—were officially adopted by Duterte’s PDP-Laban party just days before the vote. The decision, party officials say, was a strategic effort to gather more Senate allies who could potentially shield Sara Duterte from removal.

President and Vice President cast their ballots

President Marcos voted early in the day in his stronghold province of Ilocos Norte. He was accompanied by his 95-year-old mother, Imelda Marcos, a political icon in her own right. The imagery reinforced the enduring presence of the Marcos dynasty in Filipino politics.

Meanwhile, Sara Duterte’s final campaign rally in Manila last Thursday was marked by fiery rhetoric. She warned supporters of “massive” electoral fraud and described her father’s arrest and transfer to the ICC as an “international kidnapping.” Her words resonated deeply with her base, many of whom view the impeachment and ICC case as orchestrated political moves rather than legitimate legal processes.

Electoral violence and vote-buying scandals

The midterm election in the Philippines has also been marred by violence and accusations of vote-buying—elements that have unfortunately become commonplace during election season in the country. On Sunday, the Philippine army reported at least two deaths in an armed clash between supporters of rival political camps in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao. Local officials later updated the toll to four fatalities.

The national police, who had been on heightened alert for over a week, reported that at least 16 people were killed in the lead-up to election day. Among the victims were a city council candidate, a polling officer, and a village chief. On Saturday, security forces engaged in a shootout with an “armed group” in which a municipal council candidate was killed.

Separately, police intercepted a group of men at Cebu airport allegedly transporting 441 million pesos—almost $8 million—in cash. The haul is suspected to have been intended for vote buying, a serious offense under Philippine election laws.

More than 163,000 police officers were deployed nationwide to maintain peace and order at polling stations. Military personnel, fire departments, and various government agencies also participated in safeguarding the electoral process. Despite the security presence, incidents of intimidation and violence continued to be reported, particularly in historically volatile regions.

What’s at stake: the road to 2028

Though this midterm election in the Philippines does not include a presidential race, it serves as a preview of what’s to come in 2028. For Sara Duterte, survival in the Senate impeachment trial is a prerequisite for launching a credible bid for the presidency. A conviction would bar her from ever holding public office again, ending her political career prematurely.

For President Marcos, the election offers a chance to consolidate power. A Senate dominated by his allies could fast-track his legislative agenda and strengthen his hand ahead of the next presidential race. It also allows him to bury any lingering threats from his once-close political allies turned rivals.

In many ways, this election is less about legislative platforms or local governance, and more about defining the future of the Philippines’ two most powerful political families. The results will not only shape the immediate balance of power but also influence the trajectory of the nation’s political discourse for years to come.

As the final ballots are cast and counting begins, the world watches closely. The midterm election in the Philippines may ultimately decide not just who wins office—but who writes the next chapter in the country's turbulent political saga.