Cardinals enter conclave with no clear front-runner to succeed Pope Francis

Uncertainty surrounds papal succession as Catholic cardinals gather for decisive speeches and closed-door voting in the Sistine Chapel.

A cardinal speaks to the media upon arriving for a general congregation meeting ahead of the conclave to elect the next pope, in Rome, Italy, on May 5, 2025. Photo by Dylan Martinez/Reuters

By Anna Fadiah and Hayu Andini

As the Catholic Church prepares for one of its most sacred and momentous rites, 133 cardinals from around the world have entered into pre-conclave deliberations with no consensus on who will become Pope Francis' successor. The uncertainty, voiced by several cardinals ahead of the formal start of the conclave on Wednesday, underscores the complexity and diversity within the leadership of the 1.4-billion-member global Church.

While a few names have repeatedly surfaced in discussions — notably Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin and Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle — many of the cardinal-electors remain undecided. That lack of clarity means the next pope may emerge not from early favorites, but from the persuasive impact of speeches and private discussions taking place behind Vatican walls.

Speeches could sway opinions

The cardinals are participating in a series of general congregations — daily meetings held in the days before the conclave — where they discuss the state of the Church and its direction. These meetings are more than procedural; they offer each cardinal the opportunity to articulate their vision for Catholicism's future. It was during such a gathering in 2013 that Argentine Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio gave a speech that left a lasting impression, eventually paving the way for his election as Pope Francis.

British Cardinal Vincent Nichols, attending his first conclave, told Reuters that the process of choosing Pope Francis’ successor remains fluid. "My list is changing, and I think it will continue to change over the next few days," Nichols said. “It's a process which for me is far from concluded, far from concluded.”

These speeches, Nichols noted, can deeply affect the mood and leanings of the electors. "There'll be these moments when like a stone is dropped into a pond and the ripples will go out and I'll sit there thinking, 'Ah, yeah, that's important,'" he said, emphasizing how spontaneous moments can shape collective discernment.

No clear front-runner emerges

Other cardinals echoed Nichols’ uncertainty. Cardinal William Goh Seng Chye, archbishop of Singapore, told Il Messaggero newspaper that the outcome is still very much in flux. "It may seem strange, but we really do not know," he said. “We have not yet begun to vote, so we don't know. The game is still going on.”

While names like Parolin and Tagle have garnered attention due to their high profiles and experience, insiders caution that the election of a pope can often take unexpected turns. Some cardinals with strong theological or pastoral visions, even if less internationally known, may gain momentum during the closed-door deliberations.

Italian Cardinal Fernando Filoni, a seasoned Vatican official participating in his second conclave, shared his expectation that early ballots would not yield a definitive outcome. “The first two votes are for orientation, then we start to sum things up,” he said in an interview with Corriere della Sera.

Life inside the conclave

The conclave formally begins Wednesday morning with a special Mass at St. Peter’s Basilica. In the afternoon, the cardinals will process into the Sistine Chapel — the iconic 15th-century space adorned with Michelangelo’s masterpieces — where the voting process will begin.

From that point forward, the cardinals will be completely sequestered at the Vatican's Santa Marta guest house, cut off from all outside contact. This separation from the world is meant to foster discernment, prayer, and unity. It is also in these communal moments — during meals and informal interactions — that opinions may shift and alliances form.

"When we vote, we don't talk, but afterwards we eat together, live together, and compare notes," Cardinal Filoni said, describing the rhythm of daily life during the conclave.

Each voting day begins with two rounds of ballots in the morning and two more in the afternoon. A candidate must receive a two-thirds majority — or 89 votes — to be elected. If no pope is chosen within three days, the rules call for a pause to allow for reflection and renewed prayer.

The outside world will be informed of progress through the centuries-old tradition of smoke signals from a chimney above the Sistine Chapel. Black smoke indicates an inconclusive vote, while white signals the successful election of a new pontiff — Pope Francis’ successor.

What’s at stake

The new pope will inherit a Church facing a host of challenges: from internal divisions and clerical abuse scandals to declining attendance in the West and dynamic growth in Africa and Asia. The cardinals must weigh these global realities as they select a leader who can unite a sprawling and diverse institution, reinforce its moral authority, and adapt to a fast-changing world.

Although the conclave is wrapped in centuries of tradition, it remains an intensely human process. Beyond theological credentials and doctrinal stances, the character, charisma, and perceived ability to lead the Church in a turbulent era will play critical roles in shaping the decision.

As of now, no one cardinal appears to be the clear choice to follow in Pope Francis’ footsteps. But in the closed quarters of Santa Marta and the solemn beauty of the Sistine Chapel, a consensus will eventually emerge — and the world will wait, eyes fixed on a thin wisp of smoke that will reveal the name of the next pope.