China suppresses key economic data as growth falters under pressure

Beijing's data blackouts obscure the true state of the economy as foreign investors retreat and skepticism rises.

A view of Shanghai from the city's financial district on April 14, 2025. Photo by Hector Retamal/AFP

By Anna Fadiah and Hayu Andini

In recent years, China suppresses key economic data across a wide range of categories, fueling concerns about transparency as the world’s second-largest economy faces growing turbulence. Data once easily accessible—from land sales and unemployment to foreign investment and even soy sauce production—has been removed or restricted without explanation.

A Wall Street Journal analysis revealed that Chinese officials have cut off the publication of hundreds of crucial economic indicators. While Beijing rarely offers public reasoning, the disappearances coincide with mounting economic troubles: excessive debt, a collapsing real estate sector, and rising pressure from global trade tensions. As Beijing seeks to tightly control the narrative, observers say the suppression of key data undermines investor confidence and makes it harder to grasp the true state of China’s economy.

Employment and consumer data disappear without explanation

One of the most consequential changes has been the withholding of youth unemployment data. In mid-2023, China’s youth jobless rate hit a record 21.3%. Peking University economist Zhang Dandan estimated the real figure may have reached 46.5%. Shortly after, authorities announced they would stop publishing the rate, citing the need to revise their methodology. Five months later, a new figure—14.9%—was introduced, excluding students, in a move that left many economists unconvinced.

This fits a broader pattern. The China suppresses key economic data strategy also affects the retail, construction, and land sectors. Once-public statistics that showed the value of land sales plummeting by 48% in 2022 suddenly vanished at the start of 2023, just as local governments struggled to pay salaries and fund infrastructure. Meanwhile, private analysts have found themselves under pressure; when Beike Research Institute published data suggesting an oversupply in housing, it quickly retracted the report under apparent government pressure.

Scrutiny of GDP figures and alternative indicators

China’s official GDP numbers have long drawn skepticism. In 2024, Beijing reported a 5% growth rate—conveniently matching its annual target. Many economists doubted the credibility of this figure, especially in light of weak retail and construction activity. Former Premier Li Keqiang once admitted that GDP statistics were “man-made” and instead tracked electricity consumption, rail freight, and bank lending.

With China suppressing key economic data, economists now rely on alternative metrics. Satellite images of nighttime lights, movie box office revenues, cement factory output, and electricity generation are used to paint a more accurate economic picture. Some even turn to anecdotal measures—like monitoring stories about gyms and salons closing without refunding memberships—to assess the health of the service sector.

In early 2024, Goldman Sachs introduced a proxy GDP index using trade data, which is harder for China to manipulate since trading partners also report it. Their estimates placed China's growth at 3.7%. The Rhodium Group, a U.S.-based research firm, offered a more conservative estimate of 2.4%.

Political control and silenced voices

The suppression of data is also political. In December 2023, Gao Shanwen, a well-known economist with SDIC Securities, publicly stated that China’s real economic growth may have hovered around 2% for years. Following this, Chinese leader Xi Jinping ordered disciplinary action, and Gao was banned from speaking publicly. The Securities Association of China subsequently instructed economists to "play a positive role" in boosting investor confidence.

Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics defends its practices, claiming improved accuracy and stronger oversight. Yet the narrowing availability of data paints a different picture: one of increasing opacity driven by fear of unrest and a need to project stability. It is clear that China suppresses key economic data in areas that challenge the government’s narrative.

Foreign investors retreat amid blackout

In April 2024, foreign investors sold off over $2 billion worth of Chinese stocks in just two weeks. In response, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges halted real-time publication of foreign investment flows, citing alignment with international norms. After the data blackout, the CSI 300 Index continued to fall for four consecutive months, prompting authorities to announce emergency stimulus measures in September.

Despite attempts to reassure markets, transparency continues to erode. Wind Information, a leading Chinese data provider, restricted international access to retail sales and land-auction records starting in 2023. As a result, economists in Hong Kong reported having to cross into mainland China just to obtain critical data files.

Censorship extends beyond economics

The information blackout is not limited to core economic indicators. In early 2023, China stopped publishing cremation data, a key signal for estimating Covid-19 deaths following the end of its zero-Covid policy. Analysts had estimated fatalities from the policy reversal could range between 1.3 million and 2.1 million.

Likewise, indicators of social and demographic health have vanished. The government discontinued the publication of data on tuberculosis vaccines administered—a proxy for birth rates used by demographers skeptical of official birth figures. In 2020, only 5.4 million such vaccines were recorded, yet authorities claimed over 12 million births. The discrepancy fueled further doubt.

Other inexplicable omissions include statistics on elementary school toilet sizes, which stopped in 2022 before resuming briefly, and soy sauce production, last reported in May 2021.

High stakes and growing mistrust

As China suppresses key economic data, its leadership risks alienating the very stakeholders it needs to revive growth: domestic consumers, foreign investors, and international trade partners. Transparency, long a weak point in China’s governance model, has deteriorated at a time when confidence is in short supply.

The data suppression comes as China's rivalry with the U.S. intensifies, particularly in technology, trade, and finance. With middle-class Chinese increasingly worried about job prospects, property values, and education costs, any attempt to control the narrative by hiding facts is likely to backfire.

Beijing's approach may offer short-term political insulation, but the long-term consequences could be severe. If investors, analysts, and citizens alike can no longer trust the numbers, then any narrative built on those numbers will eventually crumble.

In the end, a growing chorus of voices—from foreign banks to Chinese researchers—are relying on alternative sources to fill the vacuum left by vanishing official data. Until transparency returns, the world will continue to scrutinize every dimming light and shuttered shopfront in search of the truth behind China’s economic slowdown.