EU to phase out Russian gas contracts by 2027 in new energy roadmap

European Commission outlines plans to ban new Russian gas deals and terminate existing contracts as part of energy independence drive.

A view of Gazprom's Amur Gas Processing Plant near Svobodny in the Amur Region, Russia, on September 13, 2023. Photo by Artem Geodakyan/Sputnik

By Anna Fadiah and Hayu Andini

The European Union will announce a comprehensive roadmap on Tuesday detailing how it plans to phase out Russian gas contracts and halt the signing of any new agreements with Moscow. This strategic shift marks a definitive move away from Europe’s long-standing dependency on Russian fossil fuels—a reliance that has shaped the region’s energy security for decades.

The European Commission, which serves as the EU’s executive body, is spearheading this initiative as part of the bloc’s broader commitment to eliminate Russian fossil fuels from its energy mix by 2027. That goal was first set in the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which shattered trust between Brussels and Moscow and prompted a sweeping rethink of the EU’s energy policy.

Plan to block new gas deals with Moscow

According to officials familiar with the strategy, the Commission’s new roadmap will outline measures aimed at banning the signing of new Russian gas import deals, including short-term or spot contracts. The plan reflects growing consensus within the EU that any future energy arrangements with Russia must be strictly limited—or ended altogether—to avoid geopolitical vulnerabilities.

This proposed ban would not take immediate effect. Instead, it would require a series of legislative proposals from the Commission in the coming months. These would need to pass through the European Parliament and win approval from a reinforced majority of EU member states, depending on the legal mechanisms involved.

In practical terms, this means that while the roadmap may set the direction of EU policy, its actual implementation could take time and face hurdles—both legal and political.

Legal push to terminate existing contracts

Beyond blocking new deals, the Commission is also exploring legal pathways that would allow EU companies to exit their existing long-term gas contracts with Russian suppliers before the end of 2027. These contracts, many of which stretch over decades, have historically tied Europe to Russia’s state-backed energy firms like Gazprom.

However, breaking those contracts could be legally complex. Some European energy companies have raised concerns about the risk of incurring financial penalties or facing international arbitration if they unilaterally terminate agreements. While the Commission is evaluating whether legal doctrines such as "force majeure" could be invoked—given the extraordinary circumstances surrounding Russia’s war in Ukraine—legal experts remain skeptical.

“There is a very high threshold for claiming force majeure,” said a European energy lawyer briefed on the issue. “The mere fact of geopolitical tension or policy change might not be enough to nullify commercial obligations.”

Sanctions still face internal opposition

Although the roadmap stops short of proposing full EU sanctions on Russian gas imports, some member states and political leaders have pushed for more immediate and binding measures. Sanctions, if approved, would constitute the fastest method for ending gas flows from Russia to Europe. But this option remains politically sensitive and procedurally difficult.

Sanctions require the unanimous consent of all 27 EU member states—a bar that has proven hard to clear. Countries like Hungary and Slovakia, which still receive Russian pipeline gas under long-term contracts, have publicly opposed such measures. Both governments have cited economic risks and energy security concerns as reasons to continue their existing arrangements with Russia.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been particularly vocal in defending his country's energy ties with Moscow. “We cannot jeopardize our energy supply,” he said in a recent statement, signaling his intention to veto any gas sanctions proposal.

Energy security and price concerns

As the Commission moves forward, it remains wary of potential blowback, especially in the form of higher energy costs for consumers and businesses. In previous winter seasons, energy prices soared across Europe after Moscow slashed pipeline supplies in retaliation for EU support to Ukraine.

Brussels is therefore emphasizing that any restrictive actions against Russian gas must be carefully calibrated. The guiding principle, according to Commission officials, is that such measures must damage the Kremlin’s revenues more than they hurt European households.

That balancing act has already shaped previous EU decisions on Russian energy imports. The bloc has banned most Russian oil imports and imposed price caps on seaborne crude and petroleum products, but it has largely spared pipeline gas.

“We must ensure the transition is gradual and economically sustainable,” said a senior Commission official, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the discussions.

U.S. diplomacy and the uncertain outlook

The EU's roadmap also lands at a time of increasing geopolitical fluidity. Washington has reportedly been pressing both Ukraine and Russia toward a potential peace settlement, which could dramatically shift the geopolitical calculus around energy. If a ceasefire or agreement were reached, some in the EU might argue for revisiting the gas import strategy—though others insist that Europe's strategic independence must remain non-negotiable.

Complicating matters further, the Commission had initially aimed to release the energy roadmap in March. However, sources say the publication was delayed due to diplomatic uncertainty and ongoing discussions among member states about the feasibility of the proposed measures.

Despite these delays, the roadmap’s release signals renewed determination within the EU to move forward with its energy diversification strategy. Many EU countries have already begun to pivot toward alternative suppliers, such as Norway, the United States, and Qatar. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports have surged, and investments in renewable energy infrastructure are accelerating.

A long goodbye to Russia's gas empire

Once the dominant gas supplier to Europe, Russia has seen its grip on the market weaken substantially over the past two years. In 2021, Russian gas accounted for more than 40% of the EU’s gas imports. That share has since plummeted, falling below 15% in some months.

This transformation has not been painless. The EU faced a steep energy crisis in the winter of 2022–2023, with soaring prices and industrial disruptions. But the crisis also served as a catalyst for profound policy change and renewed political will to achieve energy independence.

Now, with the roadmap in hand, the European Commission aims to enshrine that shift into binding policy—spelling the end of an era in which Russian gas pipelines symbolized both economic partnership and political leverage.

Whether the plan will survive legislative negotiations and member-state pushback remains to be seen. But the message from Brussels is clear: Europe is preparing to turn the page on its energy history with Moscow.