UK net migration drops by half under Keir Starmer
Sharp fall in UK net migration offers political reprieve for Keir Starmer amid rising pressure from Reform UK.
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| British Prime Minister Keir Starmer departs 10 Downing Street on May 21, 2025, in London, England. Photo by Carl Court/Getty Images |
By Clarisa Sendy and Anna Fadiah
Net migration to the UK fell significantly in 2024, providing a potential political lifeline for Prime Minister Keir Starmer as he grapples with growing pressure over immigration policy. According to figures released on Thursday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), net migration dropped to 431,000 in the year ending December 2024—down from a record 860,000 during the same period the previous year.
The nearly 50% decline represents the largest annual drop in net migration since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The ONS attributed the change to fewer people arriving on work and study visas and a concurrent increase in emigration, particularly among individuals on temporary migration schemes.
“Long-term net migration is down by almost 50 percent,” the ONS confirmed in its report, noting, “We are seeing reductions in people arriving on work- and study-related visas.”
The latest data comes at a politically charged moment for Starmer, whose Labour Party faces mounting criticism from both the right and the left. His recent immigration proposals—announced on May 12—signal a stark shift in tone for a leader who once campaigned against Brexit and advocated for open policies as a human rights lawyer.
Tougher stance on immigration
Starmer’s newly unveiled immigration measures aim to assert control over Britain’s borders. The changes include cutting the number of overseas care workers, doubling the time required for migrants to become eligible for permanent residency, and granting expanded powers to deport foreign nationals convicted of crimes.
In a speech earlier this month, Starmer warned of Britain turning into “an island of strangers,” prompting backlash from some members within his own Labour Party who viewed the language as unnecessarily inflammatory. Nonetheless, his government insists that the changes are necessary to achieve long-term reductions in net migration.
The Home Office emphasized its target of lowering visa numbers by up to 100,000 annually through the end of this Parliament, scheduled for 2029.
“The 300,000 drop in net migration since the election is important and welcome,” said Interior Minister Yvette Cooper. “The figures had quadrupled to nearly a million in the last Parliament. Now we are finally seeing the impact of decisive action.”
Cooper added that nearly 30,000 failed asylum seekers had been deported since Labour took office following their general election victory in July. That number marks a 12-month increase compared to the same period the previous year.
Political tensions over net migration
Despite the headline-grabbing drop in net migration, political opponents have dismissed the figures as a delayed effect of policies enacted by the previous Conservative administration. Kemi Badenoch, the new leader of the opposition Conservative Party, criticized Starmer for allegedly weakening key migration policies after taking office.
“Numbers are still too high and Starmer STILL keeps voting against every plan to bring them down further,” Badenoch posted on X (formerly Twitter). “Labour scrapped the tough measures we took to get these numbers down.”
James Cleverly, a former Conservative home secretary, also weighed in, asserting that the fall in migration numbers should be credited to his government.
“This drop is because of the visa rule changes that I put in place,” Cleverly stated, insisting that Labour was reaping the benefits of groundwork laid by the Conservatives.
Starmer’s pivot on migration also appears to be a response to recent gains made by the anti-immigration Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage. In local elections held in May, the party made surprise inroads in traditional Labour strongholds, prompting concern within Starmer’s inner circle that immigration could become a key vulnerability ahead of the next general election.
Reform UK rises in the polls
The growing prominence of Reform UK has added to the pressure on Starmer’s Labour government. According to the latest YouGov poll, the Farage-led party currently leads in voting intention surveys with 29% support, outpacing Labour, which trails at 22%. In a further political reshuffle, the Liberal Democrats have overtaken the Conservatives, securing 17% of voter support compared to the Tories’ 16%.
These numbers highlight a rapidly changing political landscape, one in which traditional party loyalties are being eroded by public concerns over migration, economic instability, and national identity.
Starmer’s team is aware of the political dangers. Sources close to Downing Street suggest the Prime Minister’s tougher rhetoric on immigration is an attempt to neutralize the issue before it can be fully weaponized by Reform UK in the next general election campaign.
A political balancing act
While the fall in net migration could provide a short-term reprieve for Starmer, it does not guarantee long-term political safety. Critics argue that the headline figures mask more nuanced realities, including the treatment of care workers, international students, and asylum seekers.
Human rights organizations have warned that the government’s efforts to rapidly deport failed asylum seekers may violate international obligations. At the same time, business leaders—particularly in the healthcare and education sectors—have expressed concern about the reduced availability of skilled foreign labor.
Yet, for Starmer, the drop in net migration allows him to claim early success on one of the most politically volatile issues in British politics. After months of internal party dissent and external attacks, Thursday’s figures may offer a much-needed narrative of control and competence.
Whether this will be enough to counteract the populist appeal of Nigel Farage and Reform UK remains to be seen. But for now, Keir Starmer has an achievement to point to: under his leadership, UK net migration dropped by half in 2024. The question is whether the political gains will last.
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